An Executive Point of View · Jul 2026

Notes from the Frontier.

Notes on the pace of advancement, the scale of investment, and the speed of adoption of AI.

Build it and they will prompt.

Updated company guidance lifts the transparent AI-attribution estimate to nearly the inflation-adjusted cost of the entire Interstate Highway System.

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02 / 0554.6%

Adopted Faster Than Any Technology in History

The PC took 22 years to reach 70% of households. Generative AI reached 54.6% of US adults aged 18-64 in 33 months.

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03 / 055 min → ~12 hr

AI Can Complete Longer Tasks. Exponentially Longer.

The measured software-task frontier moved from five minutes to roughly twelve hours at 50% reliability.

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04 / 05200×

Intelligence, Commoditized

The price of frontier-class intelligence halves every three months. Moore's Law halved the cost of computing every two years.

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05 / 05<10%

Adoption Has Gone Mainstream. Maturity Hasn't.

AI use is widespread and 62% are experimenting with agents, but scaled business value remains rare.

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Method

Figures use company filings, official research, peer-reviewed work and published pricing. Where the briefing estimates a value, the method and supporting disclosures are stated. Different survey samples are labeled separately, and forecasts are not presented as observed results.